Tourism and Events Information for Victoria’s tourism industry

New forecasts show international tourism on a strong recovery path

Published: 1 December 2023

Victoria is headed towards strong tourism growth in the next 5 years, particularly from the international sector according to the latest forecast data by Tourism Research Australia (TRA). Victoria’s total tourism spend is projected to reach $53 billion by 2028, 63% above pre-pandemic levels.

Forecasts show that total visitors to/within Victoria are projected to reach 111.8 million in 2028, with a return to pre-pandemic levels expected by 2025. Though slower than the pace of recovery in spend, domestic visitors will still account for the largest share of visitors in Victoria.

According to TRA, we can expect moderate growth in the domestic sector as tourism trends continue to normalise after the 2022 surge of domestic travel. The softer forecast for the domestic sector, compared to the last forecast, is a result of weaker economic conditions putting pressure on household budgets.

International tourism is on track to recover and flourish ahead of other states due to our unique mix of visitors, particularly from China and India. International overnight visitors are projected to increase to 4.4 million in 2028.

This year, Sichuan Airlines announced they’ll be increasing non-stop flights from China to Melbourne with daily flights running by September 2024. More flights will result in an additional 63,000 seats per year, providing Chinese visitors greater opportunity to explore Victoria. By 2028, it’s estimated that more than 1 in 5 international overnight visitors will come from China.

Another high performing market for Victoria is India. Air India recently announced that for the first time in 40 years, a new non-stop flight route from Mumbai to Melbourne. This will be put in place by December 2023, operating 3 times a week. The airline is expected to add almost 40,000 seats per year into Victoria, giving more opportunities for tourists from India to visit.  Victoria, giving more opportunities for tourists from India to visit.

For the latest forecast data and report, visit our Research overview.

Page last updated: 01 Dec 2023
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